Biden’s election gives Iranians room to breathe

Although Biden’s win presents an opportunity for diplomacy, it is likely to result in a modest detente between Washington and Tehran.

In many ways, a Joe Biden administration will govern in radically different ways than the outgoing president. On certain key issues, such as pandemic relief and climate change, this will certainly be true. On others, particularly when it comes to longstanding U.S. policy towards Iran, the differences between Biden and Trump will be largely superficial.

The Trump presidency terminated diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran and enacted policies on Iran that will be difficult to reverse, and although Biden’s win presents an opportunity for diplomacy, it is likely to result in only a modest detente between Washington and Tehran.

With his eyes set on dismantling President Obama’s legacy, Trump routinely skewered the nuclear deal as a poorly negotiated concession to Iran’s leaders. As president, he made several attempts to derail its implementation. Trump first anticipated the deal’s collapse following his decision to withdraw in May 2018, and then again as his administration upped its multifaceted “maximum pressure” campaign.

Despite serial efforts to sabotage Iran’s economy, the assassination of Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani and its aftermath, and a recent showdown at the United Nations Security Council, however, the nuclear deal clings to life.

The President-elect has indicated that he would look to re-enter the agreement and use it as a basis to jumpstart further negotiations with Tehran. In a CNN op-ed in September, Biden wrote he was “ready to walk the path of diplomacy if Iran takes steps to show it is ready too.” This would be a welcome development by America’s international partners, who have sought to preserve the accord in anticipation of a new U.S. administration.

But a return to the nuclear deal with Iran would aggravate the Republican leadership at home and some U.S. allies in the region, particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia. Even on their way out, Trump officials are reportedly planning a “flood” of additional sanctions to scuttle Biden’s efforts to re engage Iran. Last week, an Israeli minister suggested that Biden’s election would precipitate war between Israel and Iran.

Of course, any serious attempt to negotiate with Iran would require a period of de-escalation and the lifting of the web of sanctions imposed by Trump officials. Facing a hostile upper house and a slew of other domestic concerns, even negotiations with Iran may prove too politically costly. As if this was not delicate enough, any new settlement will have to come with assurances that future administrations could not reverse them as easily as Trump did the nuclear deal.

Biden’s ability to re-start talks with Tehran depends as much on Iran’s leadership as it does on critics in Washington, Tel Aviv, or Riyadh. In some respects, the election may appear fortuitous for Iranians. Biden has ties to several Iranian diplomats, including Iran’s foreign minister and lead nuclear negotiator, Javad Zarif. In 2007, Biden referred to Zarif as someone who “can play an important role in helping to resolve our significant differences with Iran peacefully.”

But Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement dealt a serious blow to Iran’s negotiators, as well as those who had supported the diplomatic efforts to resolve the nuclear issue. His reluctance to provide Iranians with sanctions relief amidst the global pandemic has further vindicated distrust of the United States. Iran’s current president recently called on Biden to compensate for Trump’s destructive actions and return to the nuclear deal.

But next June, Iranians will elect a new president – one that will be even more suspicious of negotiations with Washington, regardless of who occupies the White House.